Vitesse 1–0 Borussia Dortmund II: Result & Stats

Vitesse

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Borussia Dortmund II

E. Probst 12'

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitesse38%

×Draw24%

Borussia Dortmund II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

Vitesse

1.56

Borussia Dortmund II

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.56

1.57

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vitesse

1.57

Borussia Dortmund II

1.56

allows per match

Vitesse

1.57

Borussia Dortmund II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

62%

Vitesse or Borussia Dortmund II

76%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund II

62%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

19%

Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

79%

Vitesse 2+ goals

46%

Vitesse 3+ goals

21%

Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals

79%

Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals

46%

Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

50%

Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.57 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + Vitesse defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitesse scores more

38%

level

24%

Borussia Dortmund II scores more

38%

Vitesse at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

E. Probst

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff