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Vitesse U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Vitesse U21
Vitesse U21
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
2/15/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 4Nationaal Sport Centrum Papendal Veld E

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitesse U2137%
×Draw22%
Twente / Heracles U2141%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse U21
1.73
Twente / Heracles U21
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vitesse U21
1.43
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

Vitesse U21
1.86
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

Vitesse U21+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vitesse U21 or draw
59%
Vitesse U21 or Twente / Heracles U21
78%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
63%

Winning margin

Vitesse U21 wins by 2+
19%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vitesse U21 1+ goals
82%
Vitesse U21 2+ goals
52%
Vitesse U21 3+ goals
25%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
84%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
55%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vitesse U21 (draw refunded)
47%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse U21 attack 1.43 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + Vitesse U21 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vitesse U21 scores more
37%
level
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
41%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitesse U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21

Twente / Heracles U21 beat Vitesse U21 2-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Nationaal Sport Centrum Papendal Veld E in Arnhem.