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Vitesse U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Vitesse U21
Vitesse U21
FT
2 – 1
PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
5/10/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 14Nationaal Sport Centrum Papendal Veld E

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitesse U2138%
×Draw24%
PEC Zwolle U2137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse U21
1.52
PEC Zwolle U21
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 39 away

creates per match

Vitesse U21
1.43
PEC Zwolle U21
1.13

allows per match

Vitesse U21
1.86
PEC Zwolle U21
1.62

finishing

Vitesse U21+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vitesse U21 or draw
63%
Vitesse U21 or PEC Zwolle U21
76%
Draw or PEC Zwolle U21
62%

Winning margin

Vitesse U21 wins by 2+
18%
PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vitesse U21 1+ goals
78%
Vitesse U21 2+ goals
45%
Vitesse U21 3+ goals
20%
PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
78%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
44%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vitesse U21 (draw refunded)
51%
PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse U21 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse U21 attack 1.43 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + Vitesse U21 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitesse U21 scores more
38%
level
24%
PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
37%

Vitesse U21 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitesse U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitesse U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21

Vitesse U21 beat PEC Zwolle U21 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Nationaal Sport Centrum Papendal Veld E.