Viterbese vs Audace Cerignola — League #943 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Viterbese34%
Audace Cerignola38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Viterbese ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Viterbese at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches
Audace Cerignola away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Viterbese attack 1.00 + Audace Cerignola defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15
Audace Cerignola attack 1.57 + Viterbese defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Audace Cerignola at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Audace Cerignola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Foggia
Potenza
Benevento
Casertana
Cosenza
SS Monopoli
AZ Picerno
Salernitana
Latina
Crotone
Trapani 1905
Catania
Casarano
CaveseAudace Cerignola
Atalanta II
Sorrento
Team Altamura
Giugliano
SiracusaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Viterbese host Audace Cerignola on Saturday, 25 March 2023 at 13:30. The match is part of the League #943 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Viterbese vs Audace Cerignola
Viterbese and Audace Cerignola drew 1-1 in League #943 on March 25, 2023.
Goals: Miguel Ángel (34'), M. Devetak (58').
The match was played at Stadio Enrico Rocchi in Viterbo.