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Viterbese Castrense U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Viterbese Castrense U19
Viterbese Castrense U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
2/18/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Campo Sportivo Comunale Ronciglione United

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viterbese Castrense U1935%
×Draw23%
Spezia U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viterbese Castrense U19
1.60
Spezia U19
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Viterbese Castrense U19
1.60
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Viterbese Castrense U19
2.13
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viterbese Castrense U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viterbese Castrense U19 or draw
58%
Viterbese Castrense U19 or Spezia U19
77%
Draw or Spezia U19
65%

Winning margin

Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+
17%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals
80%
Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals
47%
Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals
22%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
83%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
52%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viterbese Castrense U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 1.60 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more
35%
level
23%
Spezia U19 scores more
42%

Spezia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Viterbese Castrense U19 1–2 Spezia U19

Spezia U19 beat Viterbese Castrense U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Ronciglione United in Ronciglione.