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Vita Club vs Renaissance — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
2 – 0
Renaissance
Renaissance
12/24/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Vita Club53%
×Draw29%
Renaissance18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.33
Renaissance
0.64

Vita Club creates 108% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 69 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Renaissance
0.77

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Renaissance
1.28

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
82%
Vita Club or Renaissance
71%
Draw or Renaissance
47%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
26%
Renaissance wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
74%
Vita Club 2+ goals
38%
Vita Club 3+ goals
15%
Renaissance 1+ goals
47%
Renaissance 2+ goals
14%
Renaissance 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
75%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Renaissance defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Renaissance attack 0.77 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vita Club scores more
53%
level
29%
Renaissance scores more
18%

Vita Club at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Vita Club 2–0 Renaissance

Vita Club beat Renaissance 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.