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Vita Club vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
5 – 0
Panda B5
Panda B5
1/4/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vita Club68%
×Draw23%
Panda B59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.68
Panda B5
0.45

Vita Club creates 273% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
91%
Vita Club or Panda B5
77%
Draw or Panda B5
32%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
39%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
81%
Vita Club 2+ goals
50%
Vita Club 3+ goals
24%
Panda B5 1+ goals
36%
Panda B5 2+ goals
8%
Panda B5 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
88%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vita Club scores more
68%
level
23%
Panda B5 scores more
9%

Vita Club at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Vita Club 5–0 Panda B5

Vita Club beat Panda B5 5-0 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.