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Vita Club vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
New Jack
New Jack
12/20/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade des Martyrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vita Club56%
×Draw29%
New Jack15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.32
New Jack
0.54

Vita Club creates 144% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
85%
Vita Club or New Jack
71%
Draw or New Jack
44%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
27%
New Jack wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
73%
Vita Club 2+ goals
38%
Vita Club 3+ goals
15%
New Jack 1+ goals
42%
New Jack 2+ goals
10%
New Jack 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
79%
New Jack (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

New Jack attack 0.59 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vita Club scores more
56%
level
29%
New Jack scores more
15%

Vita Club at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Vita Club 1–2 New Jack

New Jack beat Vita Club 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs in Kinshasa.