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Vita Club vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
1 – 1
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
2/23/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vita Club44%
×Draw30%
Motema Pembe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.16
Motema Pembe
0.82

Vita Club creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
74%
Vita Club or Motema Pembe
70%
Draw or Motema Pembe
56%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
19%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
69%
Vita Club 2+ goals
32%
Vita Club 3+ goals
11%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
56%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
20%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
63%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vita Club scores more
44%
level
30%
Motema Pembe scores more
26%

Vita Club at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vita Club 1 – 1 Motema Pembe

Vita Club and Motema Pembe drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.