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Motema Pembe vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
1 – 1
Vita Club
Vita Club
3/30/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade des Martyrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe35%
×Draw29%
Vita Club36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.08
Vita Club
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 93 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
64%
Motema Pembe or Vita Club
71%
Draw or Vita Club
65%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
14%
Vita Club wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
66%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
29%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
10%
Vita Club 1+ goals
67%
Vita Club 2+ goals
30%
Vita Club 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
49%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
35%
level
29%
Vita Club scores more
36%

Vita Club at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Motema Pembe 1–1 Vita Club

Motema Pembe and Vita Club drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 30, 2026.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs in Kinshasa.