Vita Club 0–2 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Vita Club

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Esperance Tunis

Hamdou Elhouni 90'

Fousseny Coulibaly 21'

1/11/2020

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 4Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vita Club38%

×Draw30%

Esperance Tunis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vita ClubExpected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.01

Vita Club

1.13

Esperance Tunis

1.01

Vita Club creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

1.36

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Vita Club

1.36

Esperance Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Vita Club

1.00

Esperance Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw

68%

Vita Club or Esperance Tunis

70%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

62%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+

16%

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals

68%

Vita Club 2+ goals

31%

Vita Club 3+ goals

11%

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

64%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

27%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)

54%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.36 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Vita Club defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vita Club scores more

38%

level

30%

Esperance Tunis scores more

32%

Vita Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Hamdou Elhouni

Esperance Tunis · M

8.7

Match Events

21'

Fousseny Coulibaly↳ Hamdou Elhouni

24'

Zana Coulibaly← Djuma Shabani

30'

Ducapel Moloko← Tonombe Mukoko

45'

Mohamed Ali Yaakoubi

57'

Taha Yassine Khenissi← Ibrahim Ouattara

65'

Fedi Ben Choug← Billel Bensaha

66'

Zakaria Mumuni← Zakaria Mumuni

79'

Houcine Rabii← Ilyes Chetti

85'

Moez Ben Cherifia

90'

Hamdou Elhouni↳ Iheb Mbarki

90'

Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitaEsperance

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots12

10Corners4

9Fouls25

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

488Total Passes394

408Accurate Passes308

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls25

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3