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Vita Club vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
2 – 0
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
4/28/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 4Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Vita Club51%
×Draw29%
Don Bosco20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.27
Don Bosco
0.68

Vita Club creates 87% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
80%
Vita Club or Don Bosco
71%
Draw or Don Bosco
49%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
24%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
72%
Vita Club 2+ goals
36%
Vita Club 3+ goals
14%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
49%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
15%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
72%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vita Club scores more
51%
level
29%
Don Bosco scores more
20%

Vita Club at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Vita Club 2–0 Don Bosco

Vita Club beat Don Bosco 2-0 in Ligue 1 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.