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Vitória U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Vitória U20
Vitória U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
N. Bosshardt 45' (pen)
5/27/2026Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vitória U2044%
×Draw25%
São Paulo U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória U20
1.56
São Paulo U20
1.29

Vitória U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vitória U20
1.33
São Paulo U20
1.59

allows per match

Vitória U20
1.00
São Paulo U20
1.80

finishing

Vitória U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vitória U20 or draw
68%
Vitória U20 or São Paulo U20
75%
Draw or São Paulo U20
56%

Winning margin

Vitória U20 wins by 2+
22%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vitória U20 1+ goals
79%
Vitória U20 2+ goals
46%
Vitória U20 3+ goals
21%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
72%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
37%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vitória U20 (draw refunded)
58%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória U20 attack 1.33 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Vitória U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitória U20 scores more
44%
level
25%
São Paulo U20 scores more
32%

Vitória U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitória U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
N. BosshardtPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 A: Vitória U20 0–1 São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Vitória U20 1-0 in Brasileiro U20 A on May 27, 2026.

Goals: N. Bosshardt (45' pen).