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Vista Turbine vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
5/10/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine57%
×Draw27%
Shahrdari Astara16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vista Turbine
1.44
Shahrdari Astara
0.61

Vista Turbine creates 136% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vista Turbine
1.17
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Vista Turbine
0.83
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw
84%
Vista Turbine or Shahrdari Astara
73%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
43%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+
29%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals
76%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
42%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
18%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
46%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
13%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
78%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vista Turbine scores more
57%
level
27%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
16%

Vista Turbine at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Vista Turbine 1–0 Shahrdari Astara

Vista Turbine beat Shahrdari Astara 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.