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Vista Turbine vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
5/22/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine42%
×Draw30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vista Turbine
1.15
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.86

Vista Turbine creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vista Turbine
1.17
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Vista Turbine
0.83
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw
73%
Vista Turbine or Pars Jonoubi JAM
70%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
58%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+
18%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals
68%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
32%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
11%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
58%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
21%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
61%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vista Turbine scores more
42%
level
30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
27%

Vista Turbine at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Vista Turbine 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Vista Turbine and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.