Vista Turbine 1–1 Mes Shahr-e Babak: Result & Stats

Vista Turbine

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1/23/2022

Azadegan League · Round 15Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine37%

×Draw33%

Mes Shahr-e Babak30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vista TurbineExpected goals in this matchMes Shahr-e Babak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.81

Vista Turbine

0.95

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.81

Vista Turbine creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 85 away

1.17

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Vista Turbine

1.17

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.79

allows per match

Vista Turbine

0.83

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw

70%

Vista Turbine or Mes Shahr-e Babak

67%

Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak

63%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+

14%

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals

61%

Vista Turbine 2+ goals

25%

Vista Turbine 3+ goals

7%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

56%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

19%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)

56%

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vista Turbine scores more

37%

level

33%

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

30%

Vista Turbine at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff