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Vista Turbine vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
3/16/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine47%
×Draw29%
Arman Gohar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vista Turbine
1.30
Arman Gohar
0.86

Vista Turbine creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Vista Turbine
1.17
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Vista Turbine
0.83
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw
75%
Vista Turbine or Arman Gohar
71%
Draw or Arman Gohar
53%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+
22%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals
73%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
37%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
58%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
21%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
65%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vista Turbine scores more
47%
level
29%
Arman Gohar scores more
25%

Vista Turbine at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vista Turbine vs Arman Gohar

Vista Turbine beat Arman Gohar 3-0 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.