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Vissel Kobe vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
CANC
11:00
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
4/28/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vissel Kobe60%
×Draw22%
SHANGHAI SIPG18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.95
SHANGHAI SIPG
0.97

Vissel Kobe creates 101% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
82%
Vissel Kobe or SHANGHAI SIPG
78%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
40%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
36%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
86%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
58%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
31%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
62%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
25%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
77%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
60%
level
22%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
18%

Vissel Kobe at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vissel Kobe host SHANGHAI SIPG

April 28, 2022: Vissel Kobe take on SHANGHAI SIPG in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vissel Kobe host SHANGHAI SIPG at Khao Kradong Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.