Vissel Kobe 2–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shandong Luneng

G. Sakai 51'

T. Miyashiro 14'

Cryzan 28'

10/2/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 2NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vissel Kobe64%

×Draw19%

Shandong Luneng17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.08

Vissel Kobe

2.28

Shandong Luneng

1.08

Vissel Kobe creates 111% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

2.22

creates per match

1.27

0.89

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Shandong Luneng

1.27

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Shandong Luneng

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

83%

Vissel Kobe or Shandong Luneng

81%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

36%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

41%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

90%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

66%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

39%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

66%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

29%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

79%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.28

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

64%

level

19%

Shandong Luneng scores more

17%

Vissel Kobe at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Sasaki

Vissel Kobe · F

8.3

Match Events

13'

Cryzan

14'

T. Miyashiro↳ T. Ohgihara

27'

Huang Zhengyu← Peng Xinli

28'

41'

51'

57'

62'

62'

Zeca← Shi Ke

64'

Lisheng Liao

75'

Xie Wenneng← Liao Lisheng

76'

R. Hirose← D. Sasaki

84'

Zhang Chi

85'

R. Hatsuse← Y. Honda

85'

Y. Kuwasaki← T. Ohgihara

85'

Jean Patrick← T. Miyashiro

90+11'

Thuler

90+9'

Zhunyi Gao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselShandong

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

9Corners6

12Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

15Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

338Total Passes250

245Accurate Passes155

72%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls22

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides4