Vissel Kobe 3–3 Melbourne Victory: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

AET

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Melbourne Victory

3/15/2022

AFC Champions League · Play-offsNOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vissel Kobe72%

×Draw16%

Melbourne Victory11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.90

Vissel Kobe

2.52

Melbourne Victory

0.90

Vissel Kobe creates 180% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.22

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Melbourne Victory

0.91

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Melbourne Victory

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

89%

Vissel Kobe or Melbourne Victory

84%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

28%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

50%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

92%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

71%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

45%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

59%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

23%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

86%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.52

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

72%

level

16%

Melbourne Victory scores more

11%

Vissel Kobe at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff