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Vissel Kobe vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
10/1/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 2Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vissel Kobe45%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.61
Melbourne City
1.29

Vissel Kobe creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
69%
Vissel Kobe or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
55%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
23%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
80%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
48%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
22%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
72%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
37%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
59%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
45%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
31%

Vissel Kobe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Melbourne City

Vissel Kobe beat Melbourne City 1-0 in AFC Champions League on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.