Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
4/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe52%
×Draw24%
Machida Zelvia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.73
Machida Zelvia
1.11

Vissel Kobe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.34
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
76%
Vissel Kobe or Machida Zelvia
76%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
48%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
28%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
82%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
52%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
25%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
67%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
30%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
68%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
52%
level
24%
Machida Zelvia scores more
24%

Vissel Kobe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia

Vissel Kobe beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J1 League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.