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Vissel Kobe vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
9/3/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe58%
×Draw22%
Kyoto Sanga20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.99
Kyoto Sanga
1.08

Vissel Kobe creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.34
Kyoto Sanga
1.28

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Kyoto Sanga
1.65

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more
Kyoto Sanga+0.35scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
80%
Vissel Kobe or Kyoto Sanga
78%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
42%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
35%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
86%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
59%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
66%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
29%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
74%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
58%
level
22%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
20%

Vissel Kobe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Kyoto Sanga

Vissel Kobe beat Kyoto Sanga 2-1 in J1 League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.