Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyoto Sanga vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
10/6/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kyoto Sanga36%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.29
Vissel Kobe
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 148 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.25
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
62%
Kyoto Sanga or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
64%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
16%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
74%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
38%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
49%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
36%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
38%

Vissel Kobe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Kyoto Sanga 3-2 in J1 League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.