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Vissel Kobe vs Kitchee — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kitchee
Kitchee
4/19/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vissel Kobe62%
×Draw21%
Kitchee17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.99
Kitchee
0.91

Vissel Kobe creates 119% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
Kitchee
0.92

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Kitchee
1.75

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Kitchee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
83%
Vissel Kobe or Kitchee
79%
Draw or Kitchee
38%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
38%
Kitchee wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
86%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
59%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
32%
Kitchee 1+ goals
60%
Kitchee 2+ goals
23%
Kitchee 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
79%
Kitchee (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Kitchee away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kitchee attack 0.92 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
62%
level
21%
Kitchee scores more
17%

Vissel Kobe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Kitchee

Vissel Kobe beat Kitchee 2-1 in AFC Champions League on April 19, 2022.

The match was played at Khao Kradong Stadium in Buriram.