Vissel Kobe 1–0 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kawasaki Frontale

Y. Muto 43'

6/16/2024

J1 League · Round 18Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Vissel Kobe44%

×Draw26%

Kawasaki Frontale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.15

Vissel Kobe

1.47

Kawasaki Frontale

1.15

Vissel Kobe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.61

creates per match

1.47

0.82

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.61

Kawasaki Frontale

1.47

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.82

Kawasaki Frontale

1.33

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.09on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

70%

Vissel Kobe or Kawasaki Frontale

74%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

56%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

22%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

77%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

43%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

18%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

68%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

32%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

60%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 30 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.61 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

44%

level

26%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

30%

Vissel Kobe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Sakai

Vissel Kobe · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

Kento Tachibanada

43'

Y. Muto↳ G. Sakai

46'

Zé Ricardo← H. Yamauchi

50'

Gotoku Sakai

61'

S. Yamada← B. Gomis

62'

Marcinho← D. Tono

67'

R. Hirose← D. Sasaki

67'

T. Miyashiro← H. Ide

72'

T. Seko← Jesiel

73'

Y. Honda← Matheus Thuler

80'

Y. Segawa← A. Ienaga

81'

Y. Ideguchi← T. Ohgihara

81'

Jean Patrick← Y. Muto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselKawasaki

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots5

5Corners2

9Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots5

3On Target1

8Off Target3

6Blocked1

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

342Total Passes511

265Accurate Passes408

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2