Vissel Kobe 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonbuk Motors

8/22/2022

AFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsSaitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vissel Kobe48%

×Draw23%

Jeonbuk Motors29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.33

Vissel Kobe

1.77

Jeonbuk Motors

1.33

Vissel Kobe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

2.22

creates per match

1.77

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

71%

Vissel Kobe or Jeonbuk Motors

77%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

52%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

26%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

83%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

53%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

26%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

74%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

38%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

62%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

48%

level

23%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

29%

Vissel Kobe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff