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Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
8/17/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 27NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe56%
×Draw23%
Gamba Osaka21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.76
Gamba Osaka
0.98

Vissel Kobe creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.34
Gamba Osaka
1.06

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Gamba Osaka
1.19

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more
Gamba Osaka-0.23scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Gamba Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
79%
Vissel Kobe or Gamba Osaka
77%
Draw or Gamba Osaka
44%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
31%
Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
83%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
52%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
26%
Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
62%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
26%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
73%
Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Gamba Osaka attack 1.06 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
56%
level
23%
Gamba Osaka scores more
21%

Vissel Kobe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka

Vissel Kobe and Gamba Osaka drew 2-2 in J1 League on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.