Vissel Kobe 3–2 Central Coast Mariners

Vissel Kobe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

D. Sasaki 81'

S. Roux 49' (OG)

R. Kikuchi 40'

B. Brandtman 74'

H. Yamaguchi 54' (OG)

11/26/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 5NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vissel Kobe68%

×Draw17%

Central Coast Mariners15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.07

Vissel Kobe

2.49

Central Coast Mariners

1.07

Vissel Kobe creates 133% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

2.22

creates per match

1.25

0.89

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Central Coast Mariners

1.25

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Central Coast Mariners

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

85%

Vissel Kobe or Central Coast Mariners

83%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

32%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

46%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

92%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

71%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

45%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

66%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

29%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

82%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.49

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.25 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

68%

level

17%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

15%

Vissel Kobe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

T. Iwanami

Vissel Kobe · D

7.9

Match Events

40'

R. Kikuchi↳ T. Iwanami

46'

R. Hatsuse← T. Iwanami

49'

S. RouxOwn goal

53'

T. Miyashiro← Jean Patrick

54'

H. YamaguchiOwn goal

61'

Brian Kaltack

63'

Ryuho Kikuchi

64'

C. Theoharous← Vitor Feijão

64'

B. Brandtman← R. Edmondson

74'

B. Brandtman↳ Mikael Doka

78'

Y. Ideguchi← H. Yamaguchi

81'

D. Sasaki↳ Y. Kuwasaki

84'

N. Tominaga← K. Yamauchi

85'

M. Hidaka← R. Hirose

87'

S. Ngor← H. Steele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselCentral

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots10

6Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target1

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

8Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

510Total Passes374

442Accurate Passes298

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1