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Visoca vs Real Succes — Cupa 2020

Visoca
Visoca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Real Succes
Real Succes
M. Țurcan 83' (pen)
D. Zamurca 74'
V. Gaiu 54' (pen)
10/3/2023CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Visoca38%
×Draw24%
Real Succes38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Visoca
1.50
Real Succes
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Visoca
1.00
Real Succes
1.67

allows per match

Visoca
1.33
Real Succes
2.00

finishing

Visoca+0.00on par
Real Succes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Visoca ↓

Real Succes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Visoca or draw
62%
Visoca or Real Succes
76%
Draw or Real Succes
62%

Winning margin

Visoca wins by 2+
18%
Real Succes wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Visoca 1+ goals
78%
Visoca 2+ goals
44%
Visoca 3+ goals
19%
Real Succes 1+ goals
78%
Real Succes 2+ goals
44%
Real Succes 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Visoca (draw refunded)
50%
Real Succes (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Visoca at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Real Succes away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Visoca attack 1.00 + Real Succes defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Succes attack 1.67 + Visoca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Visoca scores more
38%
level
24%
Real Succes scores more
38%

Visoca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Visoca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
V. GaiuPenalty
74'
D. Zamurca
83'
M. ȚurcanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Visoca vs Real Succes

Real Succes beat Visoca 2-1 in Cupa on October 3, 2023.

Goals: V. Gaiu (54' pen), D. Zamurca (74'), M. Țurcan (83' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul CS Real Succes in Chişinău.