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Visoca vs EFA Visoca — Cupa 2020

Visoca
Visoca
FT
1 – 0
EFA Visoca
EFA Visoca
8/16/2023CupaCupa · Preliminary RoundStadionul Sătesc Visoca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Visoca41%
×Draw21%
EFA Visoca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Visoca
2.00
EFA Visoca
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Visoca
1.00
EFA Visoca
2.50

allows per match

Visoca
1.33
EFA Visoca
3.00

finishing

Visoca+0.00on par
EFA Visoca+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Visoca ↓

EFA Visoca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Visoca or draw
62%
Visoca or EFA Visoca
79%
Draw or EFA Visoca
59%

Winning margin

Visoca wins by 2+
22%
EFA Visoca wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Visoca 1+ goals
86%
Visoca 2+ goals
59%
Visoca 3+ goals
32%
EFA Visoca 1+ goals
85%
EFA Visoca 2+ goals
57%
EFA Visoca 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Visoca (draw refunded)
52%
EFA Visoca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Visoca at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

EFA Visoca away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Visoca attack 1.00 + EFA Visoca defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

EFA Visoca attack 2.50 + Visoca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Visoca scores more
41%
level
21%
EFA Visoca scores more
38%

Visoca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Visoca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Visoca 1–0 EFA Visoca

Visoca beat EFA Visoca 1-0 in Cupa on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Sătesc Visoca in Visoca.