Vision 0–0 Samartex: Result & Stats

Vision

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Samartex

9/14/2025

Premier League · Round 1Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vision53%

×Draw29%

Samartex18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VisionExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.61

Vision

1.28

Samartex

0.61

Vision creates 110% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

0.54

0.68

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Vision

1.44

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Vision

0.68

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vision+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Vision or draw

82%

Vision or Samartex

71%

Draw or Samartex

47%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+

25%

Samartex wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals

72%

Vision 2+ goals

37%

Vision 3+ goals

14%

Samartex 1+ goals

46%

Samartex 2+ goals

13%

Samartex 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)

75%

Samartex (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 1.44 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Samartex attack 0.54 + Vision defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vision scores more

53%

level

29%

Samartex scores more

18%

Vision at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vision will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff