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Vision vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Vision
Vision
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
9/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vision56%
×Draw27%
Legon Cities17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vision
1.41
Legon Cities
0.64

Vision creates 120% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vision
1.44
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Vision
0.68
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Vision+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vision or draw
83%
Vision or Legon Cities
73%
Draw or Legon Cities
44%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+
28%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals
76%
Vision 2+ goals
41%
Vision 3+ goals
17%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
47%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
14%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)
77%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 1.44 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Vision defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vision scores more
56%
level
27%
Legon Cities scores more
17%

Vision at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vision will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vision vs Legon Cities

Vision and Legon Cities drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex in Tema.