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Vision vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Vision
Vision
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karela
Karela
5/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vision55%
×Draw28%
Karela18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vision
1.38
Karela
0.65

Vision creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 109 away

creates per match

Vision
1.44
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Vision
0.68
Karela
1.31

finishing

Vision+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vision or draw
82%
Vision or Karela
72%
Draw or Karela
45%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+
27%
Karela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals
75%
Vision 2+ goals
40%
Vision 3+ goals
16%
Karela 1+ goals
48%
Karela 2+ goals
14%
Karela 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)
76%
Karela (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 1.44 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Karela attack 0.61 + Vision defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vision scores more
55%
level
28%
Karela scores more
18%

Vision at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vision will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vision vs Karela

Vision beat Karela 3-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex in Tema.