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Vision vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

Vision
Vision
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
11/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vision61%
×Draw25%
Eleven Wonders15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vision
1.61
Eleven Wonders
0.64

Vision creates 152% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

creates per match

Vision
1.44
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

Vision
0.68
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

Vision+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vision or draw
85%
Vision or Eleven Wonders
75%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
39%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+
33%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals
80%
Vision 2+ goals
48%
Vision 3+ goals
22%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
47%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
14%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)
81%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 1.44 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + Vision defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vision scores more
61%
level
25%
Eleven Wonders scores more
15%

Vision at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vision will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vision vs Eleven Wonders

Vision beat Eleven Wonders 2-1 in Premier League on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex in Tema.