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Vision vs Bugesera — National Soccer League 2019

Vision
Vision
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bugesera
Bugesera
2/23/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 18Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vision33%
×Draw29%
Bugesera38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vision
1.07
Bugesera
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Vision
0.87
Bugesera
1.05

allows per match

Vision
1.27
Bugesera
1.27

finishing

Vision+0.00on par
Bugesera+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Bugesera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vision or draw
62%
Vision or Bugesera
71%
Draw or Bugesera
67%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+
13%
Bugesera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals
66%
Vision 2+ goals
29%
Vision 3+ goals
9%
Bugesera 1+ goals
69%
Bugesera 2+ goals
32%
Bugesera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)
47%
Bugesera (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Bugesera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 0.87 + Bugesera defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bugesera attack 1.05 + Vision defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vision scores more
33%
level
29%
Bugesera scores more
38%

Bugesera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bugesera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vision vs Bugesera

Bugesera beat Vision 4-0 in National Soccer League on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.