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Vision vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Vision
Vision
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
10/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vision63%
×Draw24%
Basake Holy Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vision
1.60
Basake Holy Stars
0.57

Vision creates 181% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Vision
1.44
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Vision
0.68
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Vision+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vision ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vision or draw
87%
Vision or Basake Holy Stars
76%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
37%

Winning margin

Vision wins by 2+
35%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vision 1+ goals
80%
Vision 2+ goals
47%
Vision 3+ goals
22%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
43%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
11%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vision (draw refunded)
83%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vision at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vision attack 1.44 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Vision defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vision scores more
63%
level
24%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
13%

Vision at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vision will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vision 1 – 0 Basake Holy Stars

Vision beat Basake Holy Stars 1-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex in Tema.