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Vis Pesaro vs Rimini — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Vis Pesaro
Vis Pesaro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rimini
Rimini
5/11/2025Serie C - Promotion - Play-offsSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundStadio Tonino Benelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vis Pesaro28%
×Draw27%
Rimini45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Pesaro
1.04
Rimini
1.38

Rimini creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vis Pesaro
1.33
Rimini
0.75

allows per match

Vis Pesaro
2.00
Rimini
0.75

finishing

Vis Pesaro+0.00on par
Rimini+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Pesaro ↓

Rimini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vis Pesaro or draw
55%
Vis Pesaro or Rimini
73%
Draw or Rimini
72%

Winning margin

Vis Pesaro wins by 2+
11%
Rimini wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vis Pesaro 1+ goals
65%
Vis Pesaro 2+ goals
28%
Vis Pesaro 3+ goals
9%
Rimini 1+ goals
75%
Rimini 2+ goals
40%
Rimini 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vis Pesaro (draw refunded)
39%
Rimini (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Pesaro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Rimini away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Pesaro attack 1.33 + Rimini defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rimini attack 0.75 + Vis Pesaro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vis Pesaro scores more
28%
level
27%
Rimini scores more
45%

Rimini at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rimini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Pesaro vs Rimini

Vis Pesaro and Rimini drew 1-1 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Tonino Benelli in Pesaro.