Vis Pesaro 2–4 Pescara: Result & Stats

Vis Pesaro

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Pescara

F. Nicastro 15'

M. Orellana 12'

A. Bentivegna 90+9'

G. Letizia 90+2'

A. Ferraris 49'

L. Meazzi 35'

5/18/2025

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 4th RoundStadio Tonino Benelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vis Pesaro22%

×Draw20%

Pescara58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis PesaroExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.21

Vis Pesaro

1.31

Pescara

2.21

Pescara creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

2.43

2.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Vis Pesaro

1.33

Pescara

2.43

allows per match

Vis Pesaro

2.00

Pescara

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Pesaro+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Pesaro ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vis Pesaro or draw

42%

Vis Pesaro or Pescara

80%

Draw or Pescara

78%

Winning margin

Vis Pesaro wins by 2+

9%

Pescara wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Vis Pesaro 1+ goals

73%

Vis Pesaro 2+ goals

38%

Vis Pesaro 3+ goals

14%

Pescara 1+ goals

89%

Pescara 2+ goals

65%

Pescara 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Vis Pesaro (draw refunded)

28%

Pescara (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Pesaro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Pescara away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Pesaro attack 1.33 + Pescara defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pescara attack 2.43 + Vis Pesaro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vis Pesaro scores more

22%

level

20%

Pescara scores more

58%

Pescara at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

28'

32'

35'

46'

46'

G. Letizia← E. Pierozzi

46'

E. Kraja← L. Valzania

46'

M. Dagasso← N. Squizzato

48'

F. Nicastro

49'

A. Ferraris

71'

G. Di Renzo← K. Cannavò

71'

A. Bentivegna← G. Cangiano

77'

M. Schiavon← F. Tavernaro

77'

A. De Marco← L. Meazzi

90+7'

M. Schiavon

90+6'

E. Mariani← M. Schiavon

90+6'

A. Rizzo← F. Nicastro

90+2'

G. Letizia

90+9'

A. Bentivegna

Vis

Pescara

22

Plizzari

13

Brosco

23

Pellacani

77

▼

Pierozzi

27

Moruzzi

14

▼

Valzania

6

▼

Squizzato

10

Merola

11

▼

Cangiano

7

⚽

▼

Meazzi

21

⚽

22

4

3

26

15

20

▼

Obi

10

Paola

9

⚽

▼

Nicastro

34

▼

Cannavò

71

▼

Tavernaro

30

⚽

Orellana

Manager: R. Stellone

46'▲A. Raychev←▼J. Obi

71'▲G. Di Renzo←▼K. Cannavò

77'▲M. Schiavon←▼F. Tavernaro

90+6'▲E. Mariani←▼M. Schiavon

90+6'▲A. Rizzo←▼F. Nicastro

Vis Pesaro substitutes

27Raychev95Renzo16Schiavon25Mariani40Rizzo1Pozzi5Tonucci12Mariani13Neri23Forte44Tombesi77Peixoto

Manager: S. Baldini

46'▲G. Letizia←▼E. Pierozzi

46'▲E. Kraja←▼L. Valzania

46'▲M. Dagasso←▼N. Squizzato

71'▲A. Bentivegna←▼G. Cangiano

77'▲A. De Marco←▼L. Meazzi

Pescara substitutes

2Letizia5Kraja8Dagasso20Bentivegna28Marco1Saio9Alberti12Profeta15Tonin16Crialese25Staver26Lonardi30Saccomanni79Lancini

Match Recap: Vis Pesaro vs Pescara

Pescara beat Vis Pesaro 4-2 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Orellana (12'), F. Nicastro (15'), L. Meazzi (35'), A. Ferraris (49'), G. Letizia (90+2'), A. Bentivegna (90+9').

The match was played at Stadio Tonino Benelli in Pesaro.

Vis Pesaro vs Pescara — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vis Pesaro vs Pescara