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Vis Kosova vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
CANC
12:30
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
10/19/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vis Kosova46%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.52
TOŠK Tešanj
1.16

Vis Kosova creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
71%
Vis Kosova or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
54%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
23%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
78%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
45%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
20%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
69%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
32%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
61%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
46%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
29%

Vis Kosova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vis Kosova vs TOŠK Tešanj — Match Preview

Vis Kosova face TOŠK Tešanj on October 19, 2024 in this 1st League - FBiH fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vis Kosova host TOŠK Tešanj at Gradski stadion Maglaj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.