Vis Kosova vs Stupčanica Olovo

Vis Kosova

CANC

00:00

Stupčanica Olovo

5/3/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vis Kosova38%

×Draw27%

Stupčanica Olovo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchStupčanica Olovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.17

Vis Kosova

1.26

Stupčanica Olovo

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

1.50

creates per match

1.23

1.10

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Stupčanica Olovo

1.23

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Stupčanica Olovo

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

66%

Vis Kosova or Stupčanica Olovo

73%

Draw or Stupčanica Olovo

62%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

17%

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

72%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

36%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

13%

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

69%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

33%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

53%

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

38%

level

27%

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

34%

Vis Kosova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff