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Vis Kosova vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
FT
1 – 0
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
3/21/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vis Kosova67%
×Draw19%
Slaven Živinice13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
2.14
Slaven Živinice
0.83

Vis Kosova creates 158% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
87%
Vis Kosova or Slaven Živinice
81%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
33%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
43%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
88%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
63%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
36%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
56%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
20%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
83%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.14

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
67%
level
19%
Slaven Živinice scores more
13%

Vis Kosova at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Vis Kosova 1–0 Slaven Živinice

Vis Kosova beat Slaven Živinice 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Žepče.