Vis Kosova 1–1 Radnik Hadžići: Result & Stats

Vis Kosova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnik Hadžići

9/16/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vis Kosova49%

×Draw26%

Radnik Hadžići26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchRadnik Hadžići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Vis Kosova

1.54

Radnik Hadžići

1.04

Vis Kosova creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 94 away

1.50

creates per match

0.97

1.10

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Radnik Hadžići

0.97

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Radnik Hadžići

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Radnik Hadžići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

74%

Vis Kosova or Radnik Hadžići

74%

Draw or Radnik Hadžići

51%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

25%

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

79%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

45%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

20%

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals

65%

Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals

28%

Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

66%

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

49%

level

26%

Radnik Hadžići scores more

26%

Vis Kosova at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff