Vis Kosova 4–1 Radnički Lukavac: Result & Stats

Vis Kosova

FT

4 – 1

Radnički Lukavac

4/1/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vis Kosova58%

×Draw21%

Radnički Lukavac21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchRadnički Lukavac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.15

Vis Kosova

2.04

Radnički Lukavac

1.15

Vis Kosova creates 77% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

1.10

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Radnički Lukavac

1.20

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Radnički Lukavac

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Radnički Lukavac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

79%

Vis Kosova or Radnički Lukavac

79%

Draw or Radnički Lukavac

42%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

35%

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

87%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

60%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

33%

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

68%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

32%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

73%

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

58%

level

21%

Radnički Lukavac scores more

21%

Vis Kosova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff