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Vis Kosova vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
FT
1 – 1
Orašje
Orašje
9/18/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vis Kosova56%
×Draw23%
Orašje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.83
Orašje
1.03

Vis Kosova creates 78% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
79%
Vis Kosova or Orašje
77%
Draw or Orašje
44%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
32%
Orašje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
84%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
54%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
28%
Orašje 1+ goals
64%
Orašje 2+ goals
28%
Orašje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
73%
Orašje (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orašje attack 0.96 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
56%
level
23%
Orašje scores more
21%

Vis Kosova at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Vis Kosova 1–1 Orašje

Vis Kosova and Orašje drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Maglaj in Maglaj.