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Vis Kosova vs Igman Konjic — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
4/2/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vis Kosova46%
×Draw26%
Igman Konjic28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.46
Igman Konjic
1.07

Vis Kosova creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
Igman Konjic
1.04

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
Igman Konjic
1.41

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
72%
Vis Kosova or Igman Konjic
74%
Draw or Igman Konjic
54%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
23%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
77%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
43%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
18%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
66%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
29%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
62%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Igman Konjic defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Igman Konjic attack 1.04 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
46%
level
26%
Igman Konjic scores more
28%

Vis Kosova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Kosova vs Igman Konjic

Vis Kosova and Igman Konjic drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Maglaj in Maglaj.