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Vis Kosova vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
CANC
00:00
Čelik
Čelik
6/7/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 29Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vis Kosova43%
×Draw27%
Čelik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.37
Čelik
1.12

Vis Kosova creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
69%
Vis Kosova or Čelik
73%
Draw or Čelik
57%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
20%
Čelik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
75%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
40%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
16%
Čelik 1+ goals
67%
Čelik 2+ goals
31%
Čelik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
58%
Čelik (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Čelik attack 1.14 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
43%
level
27%
Čelik scores more
31%

Vis Kosova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vis Kosova face Čelik (1st League - FBiH)

1st League - FBiH returns with Vis Kosova hosting Čelik. Match starts June 7, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vis Kosova host Čelik at Gradski stadion Maglaj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.