Vis Kosova 2–1 Čapljina: Result & Stats

Vis Kosova

FT

2 – 1

Čapljina

9/13/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vis Kosova54%

×Draw24%

Čapljina22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchČapljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.01

Vis Kosova

1.73

Čapljina

1.01

Vis Kosova creates 71% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

0.91

1.10

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Čapljina

0.91

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Čapljina

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Čapljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

78%

Vis Kosova or Čapljina

76%

Draw or Čapljina

46%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

30%

Čapljina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

82%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

52%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

25%

Čapljina 1+ goals

64%

Čapljina 2+ goals

27%

Čapljina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

71%

Čapljina (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

54%

level

24%

Čapljina scores more

22%

Vis Kosova at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff