Vis Kosova vs Budućnost Banovići

Vis Kosova

CANC

00:00

Budućnost Banovići

5/17/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vis Kosova50%

×Draw25%

Budućnost Banovići26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Banovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

Vis Kosova

1.61

Budućnost Banovići

1.08

Vis Kosova creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

1.50

creates per match

1.07

1.10

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Budućnost Banovići

1.07

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Budućnost Banovići

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Budućnost Banovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

74%

Vis Kosova or Budućnost Banovići

75%

Draw or Budućnost Banovići

50%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

26%

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

80%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

48%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

22%

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

66%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

29%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

66%

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

50%

level

25%

Budućnost Banovići scores more

26%

Vis Kosova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff