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Vis Artena vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
0 – 3
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
11/14/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena31%
×Draw27%
Ostia Mare43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.14
Ostia Mare
1.40

Ostia Mare creates 23% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
57%
Vis Artena or Ostia Mare
73%
Draw or Ostia Mare
69%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
12%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
68%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
32%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
11%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
75%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
41%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
42%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vis Artena scores more
31%
level
27%
Ostia Mare scores more
43%

Ostia Mare at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Vis Artena 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.